Report: Big Horn is state’s fourth-fastest growing county

Over the past year and since the last census, Big Horn County has been among the fastest-growing counties in Wyoming.
A report released last week by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information’s Economic Analysis Division showed only three counties gaining population at a faster clip than Big Horn County, which was estimated to have a July 1, 2023, population of 12,018 residents. The county grew by 139 residents, or 1.2%, between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, and by 495 residents, or 4.3%, between April 1, 2020, (date used for the 2020 U.S. Census) and July 1, 2023.
The fastest growing Wyoming county between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, was Sublette, which grew by 2.5%, followed by Crook at 2.3% and Sheridan at 1.5%. Big Horn County’s growth rate of 1.2% during that span was three times higher than the state average of .4%. The statewide population estimate grew by 2,428 residents — to 584,057 from 581,629, which was the estimate on July 1, 2023.
Seventeen counties experienced population increases of some kind during that one-year period. The biggest declines, meanwhile, occurred in Carbon and Platte counties.
Between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2023, the fastest-growing Wyoming county was Lincoln, which grew by 6.6% (1,298 residents). Crook grew by 5.8% (416 residents), and Sheridan grew by 5.2% (1,602 residents). Big Horn County grew by 4.3% or 495 residents.
According to the release, two factors contribute to changes in population — natural change, which is the difference between the number of births and deaths, and net migration, the numerical difference between people moving into and out of an area. At the state level, the net migration was 2,338, meaning that 2,338 more people moved into Wyoming than moved out between July 2022 and July 2023. The natural change was 103 (5,882 births and 5,779 deaths).
“After an unprecedented occurrence (the number of deaths outnumbered births) in Wyoming’s history during the worst time of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the natural change turned to positive, according to Wyoming Department of Health records,” commented Dr. Wenlin Liu, chief economist with the State of Wyoming, Economic Analysis Division.
Wyoming’s population growth from natural change already declined steadily between 2008 and 2019 as birth rates dropped and Baby Boomers aged with increased mortality. The natural change was near 4,000 (8,134 births and 4,183 deaths) in 2008, but it dropped below 1,500 (6,568 births and 5,122 deaths) in 2019 (prior to COVID-19). Since then, the pandemic further pulled down the number of births to around 6,000 annually for the past four years and it has not recovered even after the pandemic. As a result, across the state, more than half of the counties still showed negative natural change (more deaths than births) during the year between July 2022 and July 2023; in contrast, less than one-third of the counties experienced a natural decrease in 2019.
The state experienced nearly six consecutive years of negative net migration (more people left than moved into the state) between 2014 and 2019 due to the energy downturn. However, the direction of net migration has since reversed.
“Energy driven employment opportunity is always the leading factor for Wyoming’s migration trend; however, the pandemic specifically played a larger role in recent years,” said Dr. Liu. “A number of professionals with higher income and telework capabilities chose to relocate to less populated and lower cost areas during the pandemic.”
Nearly three-fourths of Wyoming’s counties showed positive net migration from 2022 to 2023, led by Sheridan (542), similar to the trends seen in the previous couple of years. Only six counties experienced negative net migration led by Carbon (-193), Sweetwater (-192), and Teton (-166).
“Nationwide, the pandemic induced migration trend (moving from large metros to suburban and non-metro areas) slowed down in 2023, but this movement did not fade much for Wyoming,” Liu continued. “People continued to relocate to the state’s sparsely populated areas in the northern region such as Park, Big Horn, Sheridan and Crook counties as well as in the western areas including Lincoln and Sublette counties.”
Since the 2020 Census (April 1, 2020), Wyoming’s population has increased by 7,207 or 1.2 percent, which is faster than the U.S. rate of 1.0 percent. Sheridan and Lincoln counties demonstrated the largest growth, adding 1,602 (5.2%) and 1,296 (6.6%) residents, respectively. Sweetwater County lost the most population (-1,022, or -2.4%). Laramie County, the most populous county in the state, grew 0.5 percent, while Natrona, the second most populous county, decreased by 25 residents.
A closer look at Big Horn County’s growth between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2023, shows an addition of 623 residents by migration which offsets a loss in population of 133 residents due to
natural change (527 deaths and 394 births).